Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 1.933908 2.318906 2.751453 3.272056 3.880199 4.566640 5.398599
2026-01-04 1.415416 1.912416 2.531458 3.353447 4.409791 5.714530 7.439990
2026-01-11 1.121767 1.672996 2.419983 3.493271 4.980258 6.949541 9.732821
2026-01-18 0.885609 1.440894 2.250792 3.496058 5.334602 7.915251 11.767856
2026-01-25 0.688306 1.213664 2.033259 3.372961 5.466276 8.558847 13.401187
2026-02-01 0.542645 1.031360 1.842729 3.245210 5.551590 9.118200 14.943297
2026-02-08 0.452827 0.921325 1.743949 3.238448 5.809417 9.946879 16.955476
2026-02-15 0.383960 0.833072 1.664124 3.245208 6.079964 10.810455 19.092200
2026-02-22 0.322599 0.745352 1.568474 3.205473 6.258398 11.530610 21.050872
2026-03-01 0.259526 0.639870 1.420096 3.043268 6.192859 11.821462 22.302301
2026-03-08 0.220106 0.576067 1.341871 3.001228 6.337509 12.484126 24.244630
2026-03-15 0.189906 0.526301 1.283540 2.988589 6.532709 13.249830 26.428804
2026-03-22 0.177420 0.517225 1.313176 3.166414 7.131098 14.830662 30.265563
2026-03-29 0.159682 0.491067 1.300372 3.251562 7.552010 16.115629 33.664858
2026-04-05 0.147256 0.476087 1.310927 3.389537 8.097741 17.690216 37.744985
2026-04-12 0.129051 0.440669 1.265833 3.392872 8.353798 18.710300 40.826410
2026-04-19 0.107777 0.390692 1.174883 3.273261 8.322903 19.141154 42.767742
2026-04-26 0.089772 0.345611 1.087876 3.148993 8.264070 19.503659 44.592834
2026-05-03 0.078868 0.320356 1.049850 3.142431 8.476923 20.459023 47.715266
2026-05-10 0.069845 0.298960 1.018711 3.149014 8.721096 21.501601 51.099470
2026-05-17 0.060684 0.274358 0.973426 3.110349 8.848873 22.294966 54.005766
2026-05-24 0.049786 0.239654 0.890193 2.952515 8.656666 22.344133 55.283106
2026-05-31 0.043224 0.219871 0.849995 2.911612 8.760618 23.084707 58.155111